Just think about it.

"ImmoralMinority" (araimondo) 05/10/2020 at 21:48 • Filed to: None

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Just Jeepin' > ImmoralMinority 05/10/2020 at 22:03

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I’ve come around to accepting the inevitability of it, but I’d feel a lot better about it if I felt the federal government were doing everything in its power to protect health care workers, nursing home residents, first responders, essential workers, to make sure states have the money they need to pay unemployment insurance, and people have the money they need to pay the rent...

Instead, this feels more like Ned Flanders’ parents uttering one of the most memorable lines from the Simpsons: “W e’ve tried nothing at all and we’re all out of ideas.”

66P1800inpieces > Just Jeepin' 05/10/2020 at 22:10

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I figured at some point the government would have licensed mask making from 3m, opened a gigantic factory, pumped out millions, and handed them out through towns every week. Wouldn’t be perfect, but would help a bit. How are we still short of PPE?

CB > ImmoralMinority 05/10/2020 at 22:11

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“The last global depression created conditions for a catastrophic world war that killed roughly 75 to 80 million people.”

That is a gross oversimplification of how World War II started. You also had rising nationalism, a government that was incredibly willing to wipe out “undesirables”, the rest of the world that maybe noticed but didn’t care to do something, you know, things that aren’t happening now.

Wait a minute.  

My bird IS the word > ImmoralMinority 05/10/2020 at 22:11

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It’s all a matter of how safe you feel. Is coronavirus or unemployment a bigger risk to you?

I mean, I think unless they go full quarantine and lock everyone inside (which they haven’t done) then they are just delaying the inevitable. I mean wasn’t the point just to “flatten the curve”? If so, mission accomplished, lets open up with social distancing.

ranwhenparked > ImmoralMinority 05/10/2020 at 22:13

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Shutting down was very easy to do, all it took was the signing of an executive order, and it didn’t require bold leadership, because it was already established by consensus as the default method for slowing the spread before the virus really hit the US. Restarting is way, way harder, because, not only do all the governors have to move at different times, bringing more attention on them individually when they do so, but because nobody wants to be blamed for contributing to even one more death. It also takes more than a quick sound bite to explain, since the rationale for reopening is more nuanced than just “flatten the curve”, which is easy to explain. The public’s attention span won’t hold for a lengthy explanation of all the knock-on effects of a prolonged economic depression. 

Ultimately, it isn’t fair to say lives vs. the economy, because “the economy” isn’t some 3rd party entity that has an independent existence on its own, the economy is composed of all of us, so it really comes down to lives vs lives, and its possible for people to fall into both sides simultaneously.

f86sabre > ImmoralMinority 05/10/2020 at 22:17

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themanwithsauce - has as many vehicles as job titles > ImmoralMinority 05/10/2020 at 22:23

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My problem with a lot of the “This isn’t as bad as you think” talk is that we won’t conclusively know the full lethality, transmitability, infection rates, and more for a numberof months, if not years. But we *could* kill it where it stands right now by following the social distancing and shutd own guidelines. Which is what I would rather we do given how shitty people are at predicting the future and accurately “predicting” things like this.

I will use the motorcycle helmet analogy here - If you say out loud “I don’t wear a helmet and I accept the risks” then you should not be allowed to say “Motorcycles are dangerous!” when you crash. After all, if you “knew the risks” then you should;ve known that was a possibility. F rom where I stand, your insurance should then be able to say “You didn’t pay the ‘ride without a helmet’ premium so you don’t get a payout” if you don’t let them know that you’re not doing something that could reduce injuries in the event of a crash.

Tying this back to the re-opening of plants and whatnot, I see lots of people acting like this isn’t a big deal. They *might* be right, but I highly doubt that many will put their money where their mouth is. If the heads of factories and businesses say “I accept the risks myself and will payout medical benefits out of my own dollar” then I am okay with a business reopening. I have a very strong feeling that many people will reject that idea though.. .

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > ImmoralMinority 05/10/2020 at 22:23

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“The last global depression created conditions for a catastrophic world war that killed roughly 75 to 80 million people. Is that a possibility?”

Ironic to use the generous leap from Covid19 shutdown to a World War, given that the author is advocating that the US basically suffer deaths matching 9/11 *per day* in order to reopen.

thatsmr > ImmoralMinority 05/10/2020 at 22:24

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Since when have “thoughtful” shutdown sceptics have said anything in favor of making sure people are fed, healthy, or educated?

Asking for a friend  

ranwhenparked > My bird IS the word 05/10/2020 at 22:26

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Yes, that was the point. I think the problem is the general public is very confused as to what shutdowns and social distancing were intended to accomplish and can accomplish, mainly because the messaging had to quickly shift from explaining and educating about the policy; to encouraging people to follow the policy and find ways to mitigate its negative effe cts.

Social distancing cannot stop people from being infected with the virus, it cannot stop people from dying from the virus, and it cannot just make the virus disappear. None of that was possible from the moment it spread beyond Wuhan, and maybe not even then.

It was only about prolonging the period of time it takes for the virus to spread through the population, to prevent the healthcare system from being totally overwhelmed. The best outcome we can get right now is a healthcare system operating well within capacity, with enough equipment and enough beds to handle another sudden spike in COVID19 admissions, that’s all that’s achievable without a vaccine or effective treatment, neither of which is absolutely guaranteed to ever be available. The plan was always to cautiously reopen everything, whilst keeping some safety measures in place, once the curve flattened and we got to the other side of it.

themanwithsauce - has as many vehicles as job titles > themanwithsauce - has as many vehicles as job titles 05/10/2020 at 22:37

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I didn’t quite hit a point I wanted to in this which is that people tend to act like they know the risks but then act surprised when it turns out they didn’t, despite all evidence pointing to the conclusion they dubbed a “surprise”. I’m going to say there’s a bit of Dunning-Kruger effect here where the people in charge of making decisions and reporting on it don’t know enough about it to know what success or failure even look like. Thus feeding back into the whole “We really don’t know enough about this to make non-safe decisions yet” idea.

It seems so long ago, but remember back in March when we were like “Oh yeah, it seems to only affect the elderly”? nd then it turns out all the 18-30 year olds who went onto public beaches caught it and a bunch died? Yeah......Looks like we had to revamp that one a bit.... An that’s only part of it. This virus isn’t a bioweapon, nor was it intention ally leaked from a facility, but I don’t think for a second that China, among other countries, has released accurate numbers about its spread or fatality rate. Again, we won’t get those numbers for a long time because people are fucking dumb.

Ironically, the people who have been fighting for “their rights” in the past month either by protest or violating the travel bans are also the ones making these shutdowns and quarantines last longer. All of this despite the fact that the virus won’t suddenly go “Oh wow! You’re so patriotic! Oh well, I guess I better stop being infectious now! Bye!” and leave.

Ugh. What i hate about things like this is that due to ignorance, success is interpreted as failure, and only a catastro phic failure can register as a failure in some people’s eyes.

Under_Score > ImmoralMinority 05/10/2020 at 22:54

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Remember how mad the mainstream media was when Georgia announced reopening? Even blue states are like “oh shoot, that was actually a decent idea” and have now announced plans to reopen certain things like retail stores.

It’s been gradual, and there are still some chains that are carry out/drive thru only (unfortunately, because the wait times and lines are horrendous), but it’s nice to see businesses bustling again. We weren’t as bad as places like NY apparently were, but there’s definitely an uptick in traffic and attendance since the shelter in place expired.   Even in the 9:00 hour, there were many cars in the parking lots of Chili’s, O’Charley’s, and Longhorn, chains that have allowed limited dine in again.

As for cases, we have the lowest hospitalization and ventilator rate in a while, the stats that matter more than how many COVID cases there are. Yes, coronavirus cases will rise around here undoubtedly because testing is encouraged for EVERYONE now (capacity is strong), but how many of these people will end up deathly ill? Not many, I’m betting. Even the percent of tests that are positive is down. The types of people that are high risk health are usually the ones voluntarily staying home still anyways.

Now that the federal “slow the spread” guidelines expired, people want to get going again around the country. People seem to be getting going around here, but I don’t know about some of the more strict places.

ranwhenparked > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 05/10/2020 at 23:00

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The entire geopolitical landscape will inevitably change in a worldwide depression.

And China is now the only large country with a functioning economy, and they have always had territorial expansion ambitions (including their ongoing creeping takeover of Nepal that nobody seems to care about), and are now in a defensive posture due to everyone’s figures pointing at them over COVID-19, and the United States is going to quickly wind up to broke and too inward-focused on our own problems to be able to do much of anything to help our allies if shit hits the fan.

I’m not saying there’s inevitably going to be a WWIII, but I am saying that nothing that’s happening right now is conducive to preventing a WWIII. 

Thisismydisplayname > themanwithsauce - has as many vehicles as job titles 05/10/2020 at 23:08

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Yeah, the whole narrative of “ it wasn’t as bad as everyone said it was going to be so the media lied to us....” instead of, hey maybe all this sacrifice and staying home actually made a difference. I know we’ve been limiting our exposure as a family to everyone and everything and keeping to the orders as much as possible, and I know a lot of people I socialize with and other family members are doing the same. Logically, it all makes sense that the spread hasn’t been as devastating as was projected because people have been following the guidelines. And to think otherwise is foolhardy. We have plenty of examples of where it went horribly wrong and people ignored the warnings. What’s disappointing to me is the lack of preparation at the federal level. The federal government has the budget to put together groups dedicated to run the scenarios and come up with a game plan, and we had something like that in place and it was dismantled, that’s the biggest screwup I see.  We have lots of smart people and specifically smart people that know this stuff, but it’s not just the US on an island anymore with the way we are all connected, but stupid politics have allowed us to prepare as if we were.  Or not prepare, as the case has been.  Frustrating, very frustrating.  

Billybobby7325 > ImmoralMinority 05/10/2020 at 23:15

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I used to enjoy reading your posts, but won’t be doing so anymore. Your lack of understanding of the larger picture is insane. Although Covid might not be as deadly as once thought it’s still much more  contagious than the normal flu. If you choose to risk your life and the lives of your loved ones, so be it. To encourage others to risk their own lives is outrageous.

You’re a lawyer, right? I thought you could see the big picture. Guess not...

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > ranwhenparked 05/10/2020 at 23:53

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In terms of so-called what-about-isms, modeling after China is not the America I hope we are.

Distraxi's idea of perfection is a Jagroen > ImmoralMinority 05/11/2020 at 00:05

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Like a lot of (but by no means all) content on The Atlantic, that’s a th oughtful and worthwhile piece . It’ s perfectly valid to be arguing that lockdowns aren’t working and that we’re paying the pri ce to no benefit, or that the cost/benefit on economic or socia l scales didn’t and doesn’t favour agg ressive attempts to flatten the curve. Whether the argument is * correct * is anybody’s guess, and no doubt varies from place to place and mom ent to moment as new information becomes apparent. B ut it’s not an inherently crazy or evil position . And certainly there may come a point where the only rational thing to say is “this isn’t worki ng : what do we try next?”

It’s a lot less appropriate to be saying “ S crew you, I’m doi ng my own thing even if it wrecks the approach the government is trying to follow”. M aking the decisi ons for all of society that need to be made for * all* of society is one of the things we have governments for. But I have no doubt that attitude is a lot less common than the media portrays it to be: as always, cl ickworthy trumps accurate (#yellsatclouds ).

Here where I live, we locked down hard and early, and I was (and am) in support of that. But only bec au se our particular circumstances gave us a better cha n ce than most places of getting it under control, and our limited health system capacity mea ns the pr ice of not doing so would have bee n higher than in many other developed cou ntries. And (so far at least) it seems to be worki ng, so I continue to support it.

But there’s no doubt the price has been high and that it’ll indir ectly cost lives along the way, and if circumstances here were different, I may well have been in the “ride it out” camp. Although it’s also an open question as to how much lower the price would actually have been if we had n’ t taken the lockdown route: “business as usual” stopped being “as usual” the moment the virus got loose outside China.

There’s going to be a lot of second guessing and M onday morn ing qua rterbacking over the coming months and years, and we’ll probably never know what the right approach would have been for any country or state : social scie nce “experiments” have shitty repeatability and far too many variables. But the one thing I’m absolutely sure of is that I wouldn’t want to be in the shoes of any political leader rig ht now.

ranwhenparked > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 05/11/2020 at 00:40

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They're going to be left as the defacto world leader, as the only working economy and the one in a position to step up and bail out struggling counties in the developing world as the West collapses and focuses what resources we have left inward to help ourselves. Every country has an equal vote at the UN, and China will be able to buy a whole bunch of them, if they want to. 

DC3 LS, Fuck Hyundai, now and forever > ImmoralMinority 05/11/2020 at 02:04

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Ultimately it all just comes down to “ you can’t get something for nothing.” If you take the actions to minimize the impact of the virus, you’re going to pay an equivalent cost somewhere else or in the future.

functionoverfashion > ImmoralMinority 05/11/2020 at 08:07

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I have no idea how to wrap my head around the difference between areas like dense urban centers and rural areas like where I live. My town has 2,000 people. We’ve had one case, and that person was from out of town, came here to their vacation home and THEN tested positive while here. I don’t know if I’m happy no one in our town has had it or upset that someone from NY came here WITH it.

But we’re in an area with very, very limited medical capacity locally and an elderly population. If we get people from Boston coming up here for the weekend (as is normal) and suddenly a few little outbreaks stemming from an asymptomatic person’s visit to a local store or restaurant, we’d be in for a bad time.

Just recently one guy visited a few night clubs in South Korea and some 54 new cases have been traced to that. A couple things are interesting to me about that. One, how easy it was for one person to cause an outbreak; two, how well they were able to trace it - there’s just so little capacity for us to do that here, although I know we’re trying to change that.

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200510001254320?section=national/national

Another interesting thing I’ve read is that widespread mask-wearing could really, really help reduce the spread. It’s less to protect the wearer, but even a simple cloth mask is pretty effective in preventing the wearer from spreading their germs around. We could probably open up more if we had near-100% voluntary mask-wearing in public places. I can’t recall where I read that now, but it may have also been in the Atlantic now that I think about it.

Anyway I guess my point is, I think the diversity of regions in the US means each area could handle things a bit differently, potentially, but because people travel between these areas so much, that’s incredibly challenging. NH closed its bars just before St. Patrick’s Day because MA did, and was afraid the whole state would just come north. So while we might be able to open up as we have been a little, suddenly our town (and state) was flooded with people from the Boston area where things are FAR worse.

I sincerely do not envy public officials who are having to make these decisions.

eta: I believe that article would have been better served with a less clickbaity headline; it’s well-written and makes a good point, that it is not as simple as it seems. 

Thomas Donohue > ImmoralMinority 05/11/2020 at 11:05

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Forgetting the debate on how to re-open for a second, h ere’s what annoys me:

Of all the statistics to use to bolster their argument, the author picks an opioid study about auto plants shutting down.

“A prolonged depression will stunt lives as surely as any viral epidemic, and its toll will not be confined to the elderly,” Heather Mac Donald argues at Spectator USA . “The shuttering of auto manufacturing plants led to an 85 percent increase in opioid overdose deaths in the surrounding counties over seven years, according to a recent study.”

OK, no detail around when or where this shut down study was done , but it’s linked to another article, which surely has the details. So off to “Spectator USA” (!?!?) we go. What do we find there?

The shuttering of auto manufacturing plants led to an 85 percent increase in opioid overdose deaths in the surrounding counties over seven years, according to a recent study. Radical social upheaval is possible.

Ummm....no facts here either, we just get the too-often-seen “according to a recent study” line. I guess clicks to external websites don’t generate any money for ‘Spectator USA’.

So now I’m left to do my own research, which via the NT Times and Washington Post is a study done at U Penn and published last year.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2757788?guestAccessKey=7f42af1b-e097-44de-96f0-e2885753f572&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=123019

Summary: Five years after permanent auto plant closures, opioid deaths increased by an additional 8.6 people per 100,000. So let’s say 86 additional people per million of population in counties that have an auto plant that closes.

In the US, the Coronavirus is killing ~250 people per million. In my county in NJ, the death rate is over 1,500 per million people. (and like most places, we already have an opioid problem). That “85 percent increase in deaths” suddenly doesn’t seem like such an extreme number. And when you factor in the drop in auto-related deaths, that increase is likely wiped out in 90 days.

https://qz.com/1840736/coronavirus-reduces-california-traffic-accidents-by-half/

tl;dr People are throwing around so many statistics, without factual references or reasonable accurate comparisons, that it’s hard to keep up. I do support re-opening of businesses in a ‘safe’ way....but we continue to fail to provide proper testing and unified safety guidelines that allow us to open up as safely and quickly as we should.

MrSnrub > ImmoralMinority 05/11/2020 at 11:59

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Even if there is a push by governments to end the shutdown, it’s an open question whether the economy will meaningfully improve. Many places started seeing a significant drop in activity even before governments enacted stay-at-home orders.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/upshot/pandemic-economy-government-orders.html

Economic activity is going to remain depressed to some degree until the public is satisfied that the outbreak has been significantly contained, either through a massive testing and contact tracing program (untenable due to ideological and institutional barriers) or in one to two years’ time with a vaccine. In the meantime a temporary UBI would go a long way towards  ameliorating the suffering that will ensue.